Bugger The Pollsters

A TV3 political poll released today has provided a result which could easily be perceived by many to be exemplary of the flawed nature of the polling system. It indicates that the gap in support between Labour and National has widened to seven per cent, relative to a discrepancy of two per cent that was the case on election night. This is despite the quite clearly evident dissatisfaction that is rife amongst Labour voters in the wake of New Zealand First being brought into the finalised coalition arrangements, and the provision of the position of Foreign Minister to Winston Peters.

With Labour having campaigned on the platform that it would aim to achieve something of a unified left-wing in Parliament, involving the Greens in coalition and striving to overcome the new right -- a category which could be expected to contain Winston, who Helen has often unashamedly referred to as a "bigot" -- it comes as little surprise that the party's voters are feeling noticeably disenfranchised. It is somewhat surprising, however, that these feelings were not reflected in the recently released poll results. One would assume that a significant poll slump for Labour would have been appropriate.

What this poll result essentially serves to do most effectively is justify, to a degree, the lack of confidence that a lot of people have held in the validity of the polls, particularly that which was expressed in the lead-up to the election. What is perhaps the worst effect of the unrepresentative and inaccurate nature of the polls is that it has a significant influence on people's voting decisions, with tactical voting having become a significant aspect of the electoral workings of MMP now that the system has become properly entrenched. For example, it is certainly fair to say that the polls caused the Greens to lose a significant amount of their support on election night. Fearing the potential for a National-led government to come into existence, and observing National's strong showings in the polls, left-wing voters transferred their support over to Labour.

To today's poll's credit, however, it could be assumed that its depiction of the Greens' rise to seven per cent of the party vote may well be somewhat accurate -- now that we are back to media polls as opposed to official electoral polls, Green voters are being honest with themselves and others and embracing their support for their party of choice. Media polls are not a situation in which one must vote tactically. Unfortunately, this could well serve to highlight another flaw in the polling system, in that it may indicate that it is not properly reflective of the tactical voting activity that takes place under MMP. The fact that there are so many of these polls, showing such diversity of results and drawing statistics from such small samples of the population is also another glaring flaw. It is obvious that there's a lot to be done to the polling system if it is ever to function properly.

I'm off to Hamilton with Eric tonight for a hardcore gig that is to be headlined by The Bleeders. It is not an all-ages gig (as many that The Bleeders attend unfortunately have the tendency to be) so I expect that it will be a significantly enjoyable night. I haven't heard The Bleeders live before and am looking forward to doing so at long last. As I am particularly conscious of my finances at the moment, in recognition of the fact that the summer is fast approaching, I am feeling somewhat wary as to whether I will end up having to catch the bus home to Auckland tomorrow morning. That would no doubt set me back a notable degree in terms of my efforts to save. Add that to the prospect that I have to get a new passport tomorrow, with the price having shot up to around one hundred and fifty dollars just today, and I'm certainly looking at a potentially financially down-breaking weekend. Here's hoping that the breakdowns at the show make up for it.

This weekend will also be a weekend during which I intend to make minimal use of computers, in anticipation of the occurrence that I end up coming out of my political studies exam academically maimed. When one takes into account the absolute lack of study that I have put towards achieving anything at all in that exam, it becomes apparent that I may well be going into this exam hoping for the best to a substantial degree. I suppose it's relatively straightforward given the huge interest and decent level of knowledge that I have of this subject. However, I am well aware right now that the pre-exam study period is inherently unpleasant, as I'm sure a lot of you are.