Something Stews Beneath The Surface

The Green Party appear to be growing increasingly techy as the coalition formation progress continues to drag on, now just a week short of a month following Election Day. Unsurprisingly the media have been quick to point out that a possible reason for this "mood swing" could be Winston Peters's negotiations that have taken place with Labour over the past few days. Although it is still distinctly unlikely that the Greens are going to be completely shut out of the coalition agreement that will eventually be formed (presuming that even if they are not made an official coalition partner, they will still be helping as part of a confidence and supply agreement), it is evident that they feel threatened by Winston's undeniably influential position as things stand at the moment.

Also contributing to the general discomfort of the left is the fact that Winston is also in negotiations with the National Party. Apparently, Don Brash is of the view that there is still a chance that he could scrape a coalition together and keep Labour out of government. It would, however, likely be a notably unstable one. National would be reliant on the support of the questionable ally of the Maori Party, who as you will undoubtedly be aware are on very different ground, in terms of policy, to the larger party. Thus, the left would hope that there is not a very significant chance of National actually achieving anything, especially having entered into coalition negotiations at such a late stage, having conceded defeat over a week ago.

But is it really a late stage in the negotiations? For all one knows, it could be that they are not even halfway over yet. Peter Dunne spoke to TVOne -- in one of his first civil discussions with that media outlet in particular, since the events of election night where he, with a great degree of aggression, gave Mark Sainsbury the rocket for not mentioning United Future in the line-up of parties as included in the presenter's notes or auto-cue. When questioned in recent days Peter expressed that he would hope that some resolution in the negotiations would be achieved "within the next week or two." His statement sounded almost sceptical that such a thing is going to occur, and almost cynical as to how long it has all been going on -- surely he can be forgiven for growing tired of it by this stage.

Several days ago, Winston publically contested the media's claim (or speculation) that he was being offered a ministerial position from Helen Clark in return for helping to entrench a Labour-led government. Also, in keeping with a statement that he made shortly before the election, it could be presumed that New Zealand First would not take up such an offer from the caretaker prime minister if one was indeed made. This is because Winston made it clear that the party would not stray away from its promises and commitments for the sake of securing him a ministerial post. Somewhat ironically in light of what appears to be occurring now, one such promise that the party made was that they would not go into coalition with either of the two major parties, presumably fearing the potential swamping of their party-specific values.

With United Future, the Maori Party and New Zealand First all maintaining their remarkably fluid stances as to whether they will side with Labour in government or not, it is looking to be a frustrating situation for the left and the three reasonably-centrist parties' tactics of holding off are likely a prime contributor to the long-windedness of negotiations. In a fashion surprisingly inconsistent with the Green's usual outwardly-expressed pacifist character, they have zeroed in on this fact, with Jeanette Fitzsimmons both firmly and coyly telling the media yesterday that "We're getting on fine. It's not us that's holding up the prime minister." This is a clear reference to the actions of the uncommitted parties and probably a credibly accurate representation of the fraying of nerves that is now taking place around the House, as politicians grow increasingly weary of being in virtual limbo.